by Fred Fleitz
After the sudden overthrow of Syria’s brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad, there has been plenty of media commentary expressing optimism about the likely new Syrian government led by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Although this group is a former al Qaeda offshoot, it claims to have reformed, intends to establish a moderate and tolerant government, and plans to hold elections.
The Biden administration appears ready to give a new HTS government the benefit of the doubt. Biden officials have said they will recognize and support a new government in Syria if it makes certain commitments to the U.S., including renouncing terrorism and destroying chemical weapons in the country. The Biden administration also is considering lifting U.S. terrorist designations from the HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani.
President Biden indicated on December 10 that he plans direct U.S. involvement in post-Assad Syria when he said:
“We will engage with all Syrian groups, including within the process led by the United Nations, to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign—an independent—independent—I want to say it again—sovereign Syria with a new constitution, a new government that serves all Syrians.”
President Trump has taken a different approach. Trump wants America to stay out of the Syrian crisis. He said just before Assad fled the country, “This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.”
After the Assad government fell, Trump focused on the implications of Assad’s overthrow for the war in Ukraine, stating in a Truth Social post:
“Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success,” his post continued. “Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin.”
There are already troubling questions that justify Trump’s caution about U.S. involvement in post-Assad Syria.
Given the many ethnic groups and religions in the large region of Syria controlled by the HTS rebels, establishing a stable and peaceful Syria will require including representatives from these groups in the government. Unfortunately, the interim government is made up entirely of HTS loyalists.
In addition, there are indications that the HTS government intends to impose Sharia law on the country. Some of these measures are already curtailing the rights of Syrian women.
Many Syrian groups will strongly oppose any effort to impose Sharia law.
At the same time, the future of Syria’s Kurds and the de facto Kurdish autonomous regions they operate in northern and eastern Syria are unclear.
HTS is still fighting Syrian Kurdish forces. On December 11, HTS fighters captured the city of Deir Ezzor from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Syrian Kurd rebel group backed by the United States.
The SDF is a loyal U.S. ally that helped defeat ISIS in Syria. About 10,000 former ISIS fighters are being held in SDF-run detention centers in northern Syria. The U.S. has roughly 900 troops in eastern Syria charged with supporting the Syrian Kurds, preventing the resurgence of ISIS, and countering the influence of Iran and Russia.
Turkey, which regards the SDF as an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a Kurdish terrorist group in Turkey, launched a new offensive against the SDF after the fall of Assad through the Syrian National Army, a Syrian rebel group and Turkish proxy. Although Turkey views HTS as a terrorist organization, it has unofficial channels to the group and supported its offensive that overthrew Assad.
Will the HTS allow the Syrian Kurds to continue to govern their autonomous regions, or will the HTS join Turkey in stepped-up offensives against these regions and the SDF? What will the HTS government’s relationship be with Israel? Will the HTS government kick Russia out of the country and force it to abandon its air and naval bases, or will it allow Moscow to pay to retain its bases in the country?
I agree with President Trump that America should stay out of the Syrian crisis until we have a clear understanding of what a post-Assad Syria will look like. America has made mistakes in this region before, such as toppling Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003 without a plan for a post-Hussein Iraq and trusting supposedly moderate Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2012, who tried to set up an anti-democratic Islamist government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.
I also agree with Trump’s conclusion that the implications of the Syrian crisis for Russia are of greater importance to the United States because they bear on his pledge to quickly end the war in Ukraine. Emphasizing that Assad’s rapid fall is a symptom of how the war in Ukraine is destroying Russian influence and power may help Trump convince Russian President Putin to agree to a U.S.-mediated cease-fire in this conflict.
Many questions must be resolved about a post-Assad Syria before the United States gets involved. With just over five weeks left in the Biden administration, it is deeply irresponsible for Biden officials to start meddling in this crisis before these questions are answered.
President Trump is right about the crisis in Syria. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.
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Fred Fleitz previously served as National Security Council chief of staff, CIA analyst, and a House Intelligence Committee staff member.
Background Photo “Damascus, Syria” by upyernoz. CC BY 2.0.
